Nov 10, 2026 · Updated 12:17 PM ET (17:17 UTC) · Matthews Operations Lab
Published Nov 10, 2026, 1:19 PM ET
Markets are betting on peace. The shipping lanes say it hasn't arrived yet.
What to watch: whether ships return to Hormuz. Prices can move on a headline; tanker traffic moves only when the risk is actually gone.
This is a data report, not a news story. Every number comes from a measured source you can check, listed at the end.
Composite stress: 60 / 100 (Elevated). Four areas got worse since the last reading, four got better.
| Area | Score | Change | What the data shows | Data agrees with headlines? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipping & supply | 77 | −3 | 4 of 22 major sea chokepoints running 25%+ off normal (5 a month ago) | Yes |
| Media divergence | 75 | +24 | Gap between how six media blocs cover the same events: 1.7 vs 1.34 average | Yes |
| Telecom & undersea cables | 73 | +29 | 153 internet outage events in 24h vs 23 on a normal day | Yes |
| Cyber & infrastructure | 64 | −10 | 6 actively exploited software flaws added to the US government's list this week | Headlines only |
| Power & grid | 62 | +19 | Same outage spike, across 78 countries | Yes |
| Food & fuel strain | 43 | +11 | No hard strain data moved; oil prices fell | Headlines only |
| Water | 42 | +6 | 3 serious drought or flood alerts active vs 4.7 average | Headlines only |
| Military | 41 | −10 | Battle deaths Jul–Sep: 29,481, down 34% from a year earlier | No: data is calmer than the coverage |
Oil and shipping are pointing in opposite directions. Oil is pricing a deal; the cost of moving goods by sea is still rising.
| Market | Price | 5-day change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude (per barrel) | $91.94 | −11.3% |
| WTI crude (per barrel) | $86.57 | −9.9% |
| Dry bulk shipping (BDRY) | 13.27 | +7.0% |
| US natural gas | $3.31 | +14.4% |
| Semiconductors (SOXX) | 144.41 | −6.8% |
| Gold (per ounce) | $4,029 | +2.3% |
| Volatility index (VIX) | 20.8 | flat |
Last week Brent was on course for its steepest weekly fall since the start of COVID (The Edge). Russia, Ukraine and the US are meeting in Abu Dhabi on Nov 10–11 (Nation Thailand).
The Middle East and Black Sea routes remain far below normal; Asia's routes are running normally or busier than usual. Ship traffic as a share of each strait's 2019–22 normal (monthly average; November covers Nov 1–8).
| Strait | May | Jul | Sep | Oct | Nov |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz (Persian Gulf) | 5% | 13% | 5% | 5% | 4% |
| Bab el-Mandeb (Red Sea) | 62% | 58% | 45% | 48% | 46% |
| Bosporus (Black Sea) | 89% | 73% | 52% | 50% | 47% |
| Taiwan Strait | 99% | 93% | 93% | 90% | 93% |
| Strait of Malacca | 124% | 129% | 125% | 127% | 132% |
The Bosporus has slid steadily for six months and now carries under half its normal traffic. Hormuz shows no recovery yet, despite this week's talks.
We also report what we threw out, so you can see what's being filtered.
Measured data (open sources, refreshed every 4 hours):
Reporting cited:
Open-source indicators, not intelligence. Matthews Operations Lab.